Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9461 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 9461 · SEA → SAT

departs 11:14 AM PT · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9461 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?