Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 9803 · SEA → PAE

departs 8:14 PM PT · arrives 8:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9803 · SEA → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?