Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
B6 1704 · MDE → SJU
departs 4:00 PM -05 · arrives 7:54 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 26%
Sat 10/10 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MDE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDE
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDE (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.