Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
B6 522 · MBJ → MCO
departs 1:15 PM EST · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4 41%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MBJ
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.66 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.