C5 4818 · IAD → CAE

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 9:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CAE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at CAE that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ C5's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CAE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4818 · IAD → CAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CAE?