Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1222
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 1222 · ATL → SAT
departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 17%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.