Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 1580 · IAD → MCO
departs 9:34 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.