Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 1863 · SDQ → JFK
departs 7:28 PM AST · arrives 11:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 13%
Sat 10/10 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SDQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDQ
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SDQ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.