Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 2868 · DTW → STL
departs 8:50 AM ET · arrives 9:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.