Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 363 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

DL 363 · SFO → JFK

departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 12:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 363 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?