Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8947
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 8947 · RDU → OAK
departs 9:32 PM ET · arrives 12:04 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.