Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 1612 · CMH → MCO
departs 9:12 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Fri 10/9 29%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.