Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 1824 · MCO → SJU
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 21%
Fri 10/9 28%
Sat 10/10 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.88 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.