Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 2251 · MCO → CLE
departs 9:48 PM ET · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Sat 10/10 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.