Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 2402 · DFW → TPA
departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.