Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 3506 · MCO → SJU
departs 6:31 AM ET · arrives 9:43 AM AT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 10%
Sat 10/10 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MCO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.