Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 3554 · MSY → MCO
departs 3:08 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Mon 10/5 46%
Tue 10/6
Fri 10/9 25%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.