Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 4106 · IAH → ATL
departs 9:00 PM CT · arrives 12:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Mon 10/5 45%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 30%
Fri 10/9 42%
Sat 10/10 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.