Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
F9 4428 · ATL → BWI
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Sat 10/10 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.