Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4808
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 4808 · TPA → PHL
departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.92 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.