FI 820 · RDU → KEF

departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 6:33 AM GMT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 820 · RDU → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?