G7 4428 · ORD → XNA

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 10:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4428 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?