G7 4515 · RIC → IAD

departs 3:06 PM ET · arrives 4:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4515 · RIC → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?