Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 31
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
JX 31 · SEA → TPE
departs 1:15 AM PT · arrives 5:17 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Sat 10/10 22%
Sun 10/11 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
17h
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.