KE 416 · GUM → ICN

departs 5:21 PM ChST · arrives 8:55 PM KST

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.21 in

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 416 · GUM → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?