Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3816 · DFW → HRL
departs 1:39 PM CT · arrives 3:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 11%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.