Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3816 · HRL → DFW
departs 3:28 PM CT · arrives 5:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.08 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.