Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3868 · CHS → ORD
departs 7:39 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 20%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.