Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3868 · ORD → CHS
departs 3:54 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 22%
Sat 10/10 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at CHS that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.