Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4022 · CRQ → PHX
departs 9:53 AM -03 · arrives 7:22 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 14%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CRQ
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CRQ (origin)
Gusts —
Ceiling —
Visibility —
Precip —
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.