Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4030
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4030 · SBA → PHX
departs 10:16 AM PT · arrives 11:57 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SBA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.