Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4051 · SDF → DFW
departs 11:42 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 10/4 41%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.