Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4120 · ECP → DFW
departs 7:37 AM CT · arrives 10:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.