MQ 4294 · ORD → MSY

departs 2:15 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4294 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?