Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
MX 828 · IAD → VRB
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Sat 10/10 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at VRB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to VRB?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at VRB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
VRB (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.