Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 9009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
MX 9009 · TPA → BDL
departs 11:54 AM ET · arrives 2:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.0d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BDL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.93 in
BDL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.