NH 181 · HNL → NRT

departs 1:13 PM HT · arrives 4:04 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 181 · HNL → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?