Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5134 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5134 · PHL → BGR

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5134 · PHL → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?