OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

took off 4:09 PM ET · expected to land 5:36 PM ET (scheduled 3:50 PM ET → 5:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TYS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?