Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5227 · PHL → MSN

departs 1:01 PM ET · arrives 2:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5227 · PHL → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?