Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5521 · DFW → JAN

departs 10:14 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5521 · DFW → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?