OO 3033 · MFR → SEA

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 12:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

Weather at each end

MFR (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3033 · MFR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?