OO 3302 · YYJ → SEA

departs 5:25 PM PDT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at YYJ that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 5pm departures from YYJ are usually not late

Weather at each end

YYJ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3302 · YYJ → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?