OO 3847 · DTW → BUF

departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3847 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?