Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 3853 · SBA → SLC
departs 6:18 PM PT · arrives 9:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Sat 10/10 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.