OO 3928 · SEA → EUG

departs 11:35 AM PT · arrives 12:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3928 · SEA → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?