OO 3994 · SNA → SEA

departs 7:19 AM PT · arrives 10:12 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3994 · SNA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?