Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 4631 · ASE → ORD
departs 8:25 AM MT · arrives 12:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 15%
Sat 10/10 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
Weather at each end
ASE (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.