Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 4758 · MRY → SFO
departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 3:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 29%
Thu 10/8 33%
Sat 10/10 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.