Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4958
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 4958 · ORD → FSD
departs 12:01 AM CT · arrives 1:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
12am departures from ORD are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.